The summer of 2022 showed what days can be like on a planet with extreme weather - it was the hottest European summer on record by far, and even people in Austria had to deal with several heatwaves, the first of which brought temperatures above 30C already by mid-June, as The Local reported.
Thermometers continued to rise in July and August, and it was extreme also when it came to rain: while in some regions, the storms were so violent that people ended up dying after trees were uprooted, the drought and extreme heat dried up lakes and rivers raising fears of a water shortage crisis.
So, what is going to happen in 2023? Are we heading to another summer of extremes?
Above-average temperatures
According to Austria's meteorologic institute, GeoSphere Austria, the country is heading towards a hotter summer season. Already in June, the probability of above-average temperatures is 60 percent.
In July, above-average temperatures will occur in about half of the cases. The probability of average temperatures is 40 percent. Below-average temperatures are to be expected in about one in ten cases.
READ ALSO: Austrian heatwave - Six tips to get a better night’s sleep
The probability of above-average temperatures in August is again just under 70 percent. Average temperatures occur in about a quarter of the cases. The likelihood of below-average temperatures is less than 10 percent.
The institute does point out that a seasonal forecast is not an exact forecast in the sense of a 3-day overview but a "rough estimate of the average temperatures conditions in the Eastern Alps".
Geosphere meteorologist Gerhard Hohenwarter told Wetter.at that he expects "almost all of Europe" to be affected by warmer temperatures. He said the heat also probably means more drought, despite frequent thunderstorms.
Heavy rains
It may seem counterintuitive, but experts explain that the hotter temperatures make extreme events more likely, which is why Austria could be heading for a summer of both drought and heavy rains.
Geosphere's Marc Olefs explained: "The picture of more intense short-term precipitation fits very well into this long-term climate warming because we know that for every degree of warming, the atmosphere can hold between 7 and 15 percent more water vapour."
Severe storms have already hit parts of Austria this year, as The Local reported. In early June, heavy rainfall hit various regions, causing flooding on streets and cellars, leading to blockages and the displacement of mud and branches along traffic routes.
READ ALSO: How to protect yourself during storm season in Austria
And Austria is more affected by warming than the global average, mainly because it is located in the middle of the continent, and land masses warm up faster than oceans, the climate expert explained. Because of that, the Alpine Republic is already 2C warmer on average over the last 30 years, almost twice as much as the global temperature increase compared to pre-industrial times.
A milder summer after a 'normal' spring?
However, some signs point to a milder summer. One of the characteristics of climate change experts have highlighted is that it's not a linear and predictable event. This has been proven by Austria's "normal" meteorological spring this year, according to Geosphere Austria.
"Compared to an average May in the period 1991 to 2020, May 2023 was 0.2 degrees below average in the lowlands and on the mountains of Austria," said climatologist Alexander Orlik of GeoSphere Austria.
Rather unusually for the current climate, the 30-degree mark was not reached this May. "That's only happened about once every five years over the last 30 years," said climatologist Orlik.
The expert told Austrian media that, so far, a dry and hot summer is not necessarily on the horizon. He told Vol.at that data trends show "waves" in average temperatures. "When you look at it globally, phases of the rise in average temperature are repeatedly followed by stagnation," he said.
READ ALSO: Why is Austria failing to reach its climate targets?
However, he was careful not to make a strict forecast. Still, based on information from the European Center, he said he believed the summer would not start with a "big hammer" or extreme temperatures and weather events. Instead, "for the time being," no heatwave or particular drought period was in sight.
For the longer term, though, summers in Austria tend to become hotter.
Comments