Austria’s political landscape is again shifting after the collapse of FPÖ-ÖVP coalition talks.
The centre-right ÖVP and centre-left SPÖ have begun discussing forming a government, marking a possible return to a more traditional coalition. While both parties confirmed the ongoing talks, they said they remained cautious, avoiding the term “negotiations” as they assess whether an agreement is possible, according to ORF.
How serious are the talks?
Neither the ÖVP nor the SPÖ have officially committed to coalition talks, instead calling their discussions exploratory.
Both parties say the goal is to assess whether working together and forming a government is possible. But with pressure mounting, there’s a clear urgency to move forward quickly.
The next regular session of the National Council is scheduled for Wednesday, and insiders suggest that reaching a preliminary agreement before then would benefit all parties involved.
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A deal by this date would allow an ÖVP-led government to be sworn in ahead of the session, giving the new chancellor - likely Christian Stocker - an opportunity to present a government statement in Parliament, as reported by Der Standard.
A swift resolution would also prevent the opposition from capitalising on the political deadlock, which has now lasted over 140 days.
Why would the ÖVP and SPÖ work together?
For the ÖVP, the incentive is clear.
After failing to form a government with the FPÖ, new elections could see the party slip into third place behind both the FPÖ and SPÖ, according to a Spectra poll. Entering a coalition with the SPÖ would allow the ÖVP to keep control of the chancellery rather than risk a worse electoral result.
For the SPÖ, the pressure comes from both internal and external expectations. Within the party, many see a coalition with the ÖVP as the best way to prevent FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl from becoming chancellor.
Additionally, Vienna’s municipal elections in April add another layer of urgency.
A snap federal election could disrupt the campaign strategy for Vienna’s dominant Social Democrats, who may prefer a stable government ahead of the vote, as noted by Der Standard.
What are the main challenges?
One of the biggest hurdles remains Austria’s budget and financial policies. The country faces a €18 billion budget gap over the next seven years, and the SPÖ is pushing for higher taxes on banks and wealthier citizens to help close it.
The ÖVP, however, has historically opposed such measures.
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Recently, there have been signs of compromise. Vorarlberg’s Governor Markus Wallner indicated that an agreement on a bank levy could be possible, as reported by ORF.
Carinthian Governor Peter Kaiser suggested keeping parts of the FPÖ-ÖVP budget proposal submitted to the EU to maintain stability in Austria’s fiscal planning.
But beyond financial policy, there’s still deep political distrust between the two parties.
The ÖVP blames SPÖ leader Andreas Babler for the failure of their initial talks earlier this year, while Babler himself has been critical of the ÖVP’s leadership. However, influential figures within the SPÖ - such as Vienna Mayor Michael Ludwig and Third National Council President Doris Bures - support cooperation, according to Der Standard.
Who is involved in the talks?
On the ÖVP side, the discussions are being led by party leader Christian Stocker, along with parliamentary leader August Wöginger, Secretary General Alexander Pröll, and Upper Austrian Governor Thomas Stelzer.
Harald Mahrer, President of the Chamber of Commerce, is also involved, suggesting that economic concerns are a key part of the discussions, as noted by ORF.
For the SPÖ, the team includes party leader Andreas Babler, Doris Bures, Philip Kucher, Women’s Leader Eva-Maria Holzleitner, and FSG Chairman Josef Muchitsch.
The NEOS and Greens are excluded from the main discussions at this stage. However, their potential involvement has not been entirely ruled out.
The SPÖ and ÖVP may still seek their support on a project-by-project basis in Parliament.
What happens next?
While no formal coalition deal has been reached, the next few days will be critical. If the ÖVP and SPÖ can reach an agreement in principle, Austria could have a new government as early as next week. If talks fail, the country could still be headed for new elections, prolonging the political uncertainty.
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