Austria is once again in political limbo after the collapse of coalition talks between the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) and the centre-right People’s Party (ÖVP).
With FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl withdrawing from negotiations, the country is left without a clear path forward.
Four main possibilities remain: a renewed attempt at coalition talks, a minority government, a government of experts, or new elections. President Alexander Van der Bellen will be key in shaping what happens next.
Here's what each possibility means and how likely they are.
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Can coalition talks be revived?
One possibility is that the ÖVP reopens negotiations with other parties, such as the Social Democrats (SPÖ) and liberal NEOS. But given how things ended last time, this won’t be easy.
The relationship between the SPÖ and ÖVP is strained, to say the least. Many in the ÖVP blame SPÖ leader Andreas Babler for the failure of previous talks, and Babler himself has been vocal about his distrust of the ÖVP’s leadership.
However, with the far-right option now off the table, prominent SPÖ figures - including Vienna Mayor Michael Ludwig - are calling on the ÖVP to reconsider. "We are facing a historic situation. Our hand is outstretched. Now it is up to the ÖVP to take it," Ludwig said, urging a return to negotiations.
NEOS leader Beate Meinl-Reisinger has also signalled a willingness to return to the table, saying her party would support a broad coalition if it meant keeping the FPÖ out of government, Der Standard reported.
That said, she was the first to walk away from talks in January, so it's unclear how much the party would be willing to compromise.
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Even if these talks do restart, they won’t be quick.
The ÖVP would likely demand major concessions, especially after their attempt to work with the FPÖ fell apart. The question is whether the SPÖ and NEOS would be willing to budge.
Could Austria have a minority government?
If forming a coalition proves impossible, Austria could end up with a minority government - where a party governs without a majority and negotiates support for each law it wants to pass.
In this scenario, the ÖVP could try to govern with NEOS, relying on case-by-case support from the SPÖ and the Greens to pass legislation. Meinl-Reisinger has floated the idea of a black-pink minority government, saying the SPÖ and the Greens could offer “constructive cooperation” in Parliament.
But minority governments are unstable by nature. Without a guaranteed majority, they can be toppled at any time by a vote of no confidence. Every policy decision would require political bargaining, making it difficult to get anything done.
President Van der Bellen has also made it clear that he prefers governments with a “stable and reliable majority,” which suggests he isn’t keen on this option.
Could Austria turn to a so-call government of experts?
Another option is what's called government of experts - where non-partisan specialists take over until new elections can be held. This has happened before.
After the Ibiza scandal brought down the Kurz-Strache government in 2019, Van der Bellen appointed a cabinet of experts led by Brigitte Bierlein, the former president of the Constitutional Court. The Bierlein government ran Austria for seven months until elections were held.
SPÖ leader Babler has already said he would support this approach, calling for a "government of personalities that stands by Parliament".
However, like a minority government, an experts’ government would lack a guaranteed majority in Parliament. That means every major decision would require broad political support. While this solution could work in the short term, it wouldn’t be sustainable in the long term.
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Will Austria hold new elections?
If no coalition can be formed, the only option is new elections, which are likely to take place in mid-to late May.
This is exactly what the FPÖ wants.
Kickl has been pushing for another election, and current polling suggests his party would gain even more support. But elections could also shake up Austria’s political landscape in unexpected ways.
One big question is who would lead the ÖVP and SPÖ into the next election. The Greens are already planning a leadership change, and there are growing calls for the ÖVP to replace its current leader. Some reports have even suggested that former Chancellor Sebastian Kurz’s name has been mentioned in internal party discussions.
New elections would also mean months more political uncertainty.
Austria’s political future is uncertain for now. President Van der Bellen has pushed for renewed coalition talks, but the results depend on the parties.
With the FPÖ out of the picture and deep divisions remaining between other parties, Austria could be in for weeks - or even months - of political manoeuvring before a new government emerges.
If no agreement is reached soon, voters may have to prepare for yet another trip to the ballot box.
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